Virginia Tech
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
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RankNameGradeRating
85  Sarah Rapp SR 19:59
91  Paige Kvartunas SR 20:00
264  Hilary Krein SR 20:33
347  Shannon Morton SO 20:42
627  Hannah Green SO 21:06
709  Katarina Smiljanec SR 21:12
1,041  Madalyn Nuckols SR 21:36
1,058  Amanda Smith SR 21:37
1,088  Abigail Motley SO 21:39
1,298  Katie Kennedy FR 21:51
1,525  Alexandra Watt SR 22:05
National Rank #34 of 341
Southeast Region Rank #5 of 49
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 16.7%
Most Likely Finish 5th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.3%
Top 20 at Nationals 5.9%


Regional Champion 0.2%
Top 5 in Regional 77.6%
Top 10 in Regional 99.9%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Sarah Rapp Paige Kvartunas Hilary Krein Shannon Morton Hannah Green Katarina Smiljanec Madalyn Nuckols Amanda Smith Abigail Motley Katie Kennedy Alexandra Watt
Greater Louisville Classic (Gold) 10/04 895 20:17 20:06 21:15 21:14 21:41 21:32 21:27 21:07 21:35 22:01 21:59
Princeton Invitational 10/18 817 20:01 20:13 20:56 20:58 21:04 21:20 21:38 21:42 20:59 22:10
ACC Championships 10/31 712 19:41 19:46 21:08 20:41 21:15 21:07 21:42 21:32 21:43 21:44
Southeast Region Championships 11/14 547 19:53 19:54 20:20 20:17 20:41 20:54 22:14
NCAA Championship 11/22 701 20:11 20:03 20:19 20:35 21:30 21:11 22:16





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 16.7% 22.4 536 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6
Region Championship 100% 5.0 167 0.2 1.9 4.7 17.7 53.0 14.5 5.0 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Rapp 74.8% 74.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
Paige Kvartunas 71.0% 77.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Hilary Krein 17.3% 153.2
Shannon Morton 16.7% 176.2
Hannah Green 16.7% 222.5
Katarina Smiljanec 16.7% 231.1
Madalyn Nuckols 16.7% 248.8


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Rapp 8.8 2.4 3.8 5.1 6.0 6.2 6.9 6.6 7.1 7.5 6.7 5.8 5.4 5.4 4.2 3.2 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6
Paige Kvartunas 9.5 1.8 3.3 4.3 4.6 5.8 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.0 6.8 5.8 5.2 4.4 3.7 3.5 2.8 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7
Hilary Krein 33.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.6
Shannon Morton 42.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3
Hannah Green 69.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Katarina Smiljanec 77.3 0.0 0.0
Madalyn Nuckols 109.5




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.2% 100.0% 0.2 0.2 1
2 1.9% 100.0% 1.9 1.9 2
3 4.7% 75.0% 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.2 3.5 3
4 17.7% 48.1% 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 9.2 8.5 4
5 53.0% 4.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.4 50.6 2.5 5
6 14.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 14.4 0.1 6
7 5.0% 5.0 7
8 1.9% 1.9 8
9 0.9% 0.9 9
10 0.2% 0.2 10
11 0.1% 0.1 11
12 12
13 0.0% 0.0 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
48 48
49 49
Total 100% 16.7% 0.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.8 83.3 2.1 14.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Syracuse 82.3% 1.0 0.8
Boston College 55.0% 1.0 0.6
Missouri 2.0% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Mid. Tenn. State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 1.4
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 3.0